Budget and assumptions

How can you turn commercial assumptions and costs into a verifiable monthly budget with AI assistance?

1250 € per session, excl. VAT

In short

In a half-day session of 3 hours you will prepare an operating budget broken down by month, document its assumptions and compare two scenarios. Generative AI helps structure the data and examine inconsistencies; calculations remain subject to checks in a spreadsheet, and decisions are submitted for financial approval.

Why this training?

A weak budget often conceals implicit assumptions: uniform sales despite seasonality, overlooked costs or recruitment recorded in the wrong period. Making the drivers explicit allows choices to be discussed rather than merely commenting on an annual total. AI can suggest a classification, challenge an assumption and draft a variance commentary. It is neither an accounting source nor an authoritative calculation tool: every amount must remain traceable and every formula must be verifiable independently of its response. Ongoing case study: The fictitious organisation « Soriel Reliure » is preparing for its next financial year. Its activities combine recurring orders with seasonal peaks. Using simplified historical data, participants incorporate a rise in paper prices and a proposed recruitment, then assess their effects on monthly operating profit. Workplace application: Over the following two weeks, reuse the template within an authorised scope, have the assumptions approved by the finance manager and organise a monthly review of variances between actuals and budget, distinguishing volume, price and timing effects.

Objectives of this training

  • Define the scope and time horizon of an operating budget.
  • Document assumptions about volumes, prices and costs.
  • Calculate a monthly budget using explicit drivers.
  • Compare a base-case scenario and a downside scenario.
  • Check formulas and justify the main variances.

Who is it for and what are the prerequisites?

Roles and tasks concerned

  • Department heads preparing their budgets with the finance leadership team.
  • Administrators and finance staff responsible for consolidating forecasts.

Prior skills

  • Be able to distinguish between revenue, costs and profit or loss, and use simple formulas in a spreadsheet.
  • Have previous experience of making simple requests to a generative AI assistant.

What you will work on

  1. Define the financial scope

    Objective: Define the budget items and information required. Operating budget, distinction from cash flow and capital expenditure, cost classification, available historical data and missing data.

  2. Make assumptions explicit

    Objective: Link forecasts to documented drivers. Volumes, average prices, seasonality, paper consumption, fixed costs and the effective date of recruitment.

  3. Calculate and break down by month

    Objective: Produce a spreadsheet model that can be recalculated. Separation of parameters and formulas, calculation of revenue, variable and fixed costs, monthly profit or loss and annual consolidation.

  4. Test and prepare for approval

    Objective: Assess the sensitivity of profit or loss and present the limitations. Downside scenario, consistency checks, annual reconciliation and commentary on changes.

What you take away

  • Assumptions register with sources, owners and points requiring confirmation.
  • Operating budget broken down by month, with visible formulas.
  • Comparison of the base-case and downside scenarios.
  • Financial summary note and completed checklist.

Method and assessment

  • Brief teaching inputs followed immediately by practical work on the ongoing case study.
  • Individual work followed by work in pairs, with peer review of the outputs.
  • Guided group review: what works, what needs correcting and what remains a human decision.
  • Preparation: Arrange access to a spreadsheet and an AI assistant authorised by the organisation. Read the fictitious case file provided; any additional document must be anonymised and authorised for sharing.

Observable criteria: Every key assumption has a source or is marked « to be confirmed ». ; The twelve months reconcile with the annual total without any unexplained variance. ; Variable costs follow their driver; fixed costs follow their schedule. ; The downside scenario changes identified parameters without overwriting the base-case scenario. ; The summary explains the major changes and highlights limitations before approval..

Frequently asked questions

Is the cash budget included?

No. The distinction is explained, but the deliverable covers operations; cash receipts and payments require additional work.

Can real data be used?

The exercises use fictitious or anonymised data, only within tools authorised by the organisation.

Can AI approve the proposed recruitment?

No. No sensitive decisions are automated; AI only helps make assumptions and their numerical implications explicit.

Who approves the resulting budget?

A qualified finance professional must check assumptions, calculations and interpretations before any operational use.

Last updated: